All nine
sectors
moved lower for the second straight
day on Friday…XLP, XLU and XLY were the strongest sectors…while XLI was the weakest sector.
Breadth weakened
as
decliners led advancers 6.46 to 1 on the NYSE and 6.00 to
1 on the NASDAQ.
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – weakened,
decliners led
Wednesday – weakened
slightly, advancers led
Tuesday – strengthened,
advancers led
Monday – holiday
SPY down 3.90 at 178.89 volume 208.6 million shares, above average volume
VIX up 4.37 at 18.14…highest close since Oct 15
TNX down .38 at 27.35…
TLT up .69 at 107.48...
XLF down .49 at 21.11 volume 70.5
million shares, above average volume
AAPL down 10.11 at 546.07 volume 15.5 million shares, above
average volume
FB down 2.18 at 54.45…volume 55.5 million shares, below average volume
Technical Commentary:
DIA – 2.00%,
SPY – 2.13%, IWM –
2.55%, QQQ – 1.97%.
While we have pointed out for weeks
to move stops up and protect profits and that should have led to positions
closing out with profits on Thursday and Friday. Now it’s
time to be defensive. The markets shifted to down in the short-term and
neutral in a six-week time frame this week, while the twelve-week intermediate
term and long-term trends are still up.
Just two
sectors XLK and XLV are positive,
five XLE, XLF, XLI, XLP and XLU are neutral
and XLB and XLY turned negative.
The market forecast green line fell
below 80 an area that
confirms a defensive position and a suspension of intermediate term entries.
Natural
gas UNG +7.89% shot to the upside, bonds TLT +0.65% and gold GLD +0.41%
continued to rise along on Friday.
Monday kicks off a huge week for
earnings AAPL, CAT, RCL, STX, SBUX, X,
WYNN and ZION just on Monday. On
Tuesday CMCSA, DD, F, ILMN, VMW and YHOO. On Wednesday FB,
BA and QCOM report and Thursday releases MMM, AMZN,
CELG, CMG, GOOG and V. The week wraps with BIDU, CVX and MA on Friday.
Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and move your
protective stops. Continue to follow your rules.
Remember it is big money
that creates and sustains the trend. As Granville wrote,
“technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the
footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.
The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly,
seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
Short-term
up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 181.34, 183.40, 184.69…
QQQ = 88.18, 89.00…
IWM = 114.48, 116.70…
Support Levels
SPY = 179.12, 177.74,
176.36
QQQ = 86.38, 85.67
IWM = 113.26, 112.14,
110.71
Q4 earnings season continues into the third full week…
Monday – AAPL, CAT,
RMBS, RCL, STX, SBUX, X, WYNN, ZION
Tuesday – AKS, AAL,
AMGN, CHKP, CRUS, CMCSA, GLW, DD, EA, F, ILMN, LXK, NUE, OI, VMW, YHOO
Wednesday – BIIB, BA,
CTXS, DOW, EMC, FB, LRCX, LVS, PSX, QCOM, TSCO, VLO
Thursday – MMM, ALXN,
AMZN, BZH, BRCM, CELG, CMG, CL, LLY, XOM, GOOG, HOG, JDSU, MTW, OSTK, BTU, POT,
PHM, RVBD, RYL, SHW, BX, TWC, UPS, VIAB, V, WHR,
Friday – BIDU, CVX, CNX,
MA, MAT, NOV, PCAR, SPG, TSN
Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – JNPR,
MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE, TXN, UTX,
NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN, MON, MU,
STZ, APOL
Negative Reactions – HON,
KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH, FCX,
AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA, FDO,
BBBY, SCHN,
Reversal of Initial
Reaction – FAST, FDO, AA
The Market Forecast Green Line crossed below 80 and is pointed down.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout: TLT,
Diagonal Breakout: RAX, TWTR, AAPL, MU,
Bull Flag: A, BBRY, CRM, CSIQ, GLW, LNKD, MFRM,
P, QHIU, RCL, SCTY, SPLK, STI, SWI, SWKS, UAL, DAL, VRSN, M, ADSK, EBAY, ESRX, FFIV,
GILD, NTAP, PCLN, TSLA, TXN, XLNX,
Potential Bullish
Divergence:
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag:
At Support: ATI, CIEN,
CREE, GME, GRPN, IBM, IWM, KKD, MS, SFUN, SOHU, SPWR, SSYS, TSL, XONE, YELP,
YNDX, YOKU, Z, AMZN, CELG, FB, GRMN, MNST, TRIP, WDC, WFM,
C- Pattern:
Moves
New Highs: ANGI, JNPR, UNG,
Gap Up: JNPR, MSFT, SBUX, KMB,
Gap Down: ISRG, KSU, STT,
H Breakout: GLD, MSFT,
Diagonal Breakout:
Breakout Test: AKAM, NFLX,
Bounce:
MACD Divergence
Bounce:
Bear Flag:
Support Break: ANR, C, DDD, DRYS, FAS, FSLR, LVS, MCP,
NTES, SINA, SPY, TBT, TPX, WLT, X, YHOO
______________________
8 out of 100 NDX
stocks closed higher on Friday and one
was unchanged.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: FFIV, SBUX, MSFT,
MXIM, GOLD, EQIX, WFM, MAT, ATVI
Lagging NDX stocks included: VIP, ISRG, WYNN,
FAST, VRX, NXPI, CELG, NTAP, REGN, FB
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday
included: UNG, JNPR, ANGI
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: DRYS, TSL, CSIQ, WLT, QIHU, XONE, FAS,
YNDX, SFUN, DDD, ESI, LVS, ANR, SPLK, SPWR, CIEN, BBRY, YOKU, UAL, SCTY, GME, NTES,
YELP, MCP, GLW, X, SOHU, SSYS, SRCL, FSLR, SINA, GOGO, GRPN, VRSN, MFRM, ATI,
SWI, MS, Z, P, V, ZION, STI, CRM, C, CREE, A, TPX, IWM, BAC, SCSS, KKD, BX,
SPY, SWKS
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 44
WDC, GOOG,
ILMN, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, MNST, CMCSA, GMCR, DTV, STX, BRCM, AVGO, EQIX, ORLY, AKAM,
CHKP, FFIV, VRTX, XLNX, CTRX, CSCO,
SBAC, HSIC, SIRI, AMGN, ISRG, MU, MYL, BIIB, ALTR, EBAY, GILD, MXIM, NXPI, QCOM, REGN, SRCL,
TSLA, NTAP, PCLN, SYMC, GOLD, NFLX
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
MSFT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 23
AAPL, ADBE, AMAT, AMZN,
CA, CELG, CERN, CHRW, CTSH, EXPD, FAST, FB, FISV, KLAC, LLTC, NVDA, PCAR, SIAL,
SNDK, TXN, VIP, VOD, WYNN
Staying Below 30 DMA
ADP, BIDU, CTXS, GRMN, ADI, KRFT, CHTR, DISH, EXPE, INTC, INTU, MDLZ,
LBTYA, TRIP, YHOO, VIAB, LINTA, TSCO, ATVI, PAYX, ROST, DLTR, BBBY, SPLS, FOXA,
MAT, DISCA, WFM, VRSK, NFLX, COST, SBUX, LMCA
Sixteen Week
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Down