Two out of nine
sectors
moved higher on Monday…XLU, XLI and XLE were the strongest sectors…while
XLK was the weakest sector.
Breadth strengthened as decliners
led advancers 2.86 to
1 on the NYSE and 3.43 to
1 on the NASDAQ.
Monday – strengthened decliners led
Friday – weakened,
decliners led
Thursday – weakened,
decliners led
Wednesday – weakened
slightly, advancers led
Tuesday – strengthened,
advancers led
SPY down .88 at 178.01 volume 180.6 million shares, above average volume
VIX down .72 at 17.42…
TNX up .31 at 27.66…
TLT down .75 at 106.73...
XLF down .13 at 20.98 volume 64.4
million shares, above average volume
AAPL up 4.43 at 550.50 volume 20.5 million shares, above
average volume
FB down .90 at 53.55…volume 74 million shares
Technical
Commentary:
DIA – 0.29%,
SPY – 0.49%, QQQ –
0.97%, IWM – 1.46%.
Stocks
continued to slide on Monday with the DJIA closing down 41.23, its fifth day down and the S&P 500
sinking 8.73. Many stocks finished the day with a break
of support or closed at support.
Numerous stocks continued in their bull-flag pattern.
After the
closing bell the big news was earnings report on AAPL. AAPL revenue outlook was weaker than
expected with the Apple iPhone sales also coming in weaker than analysts
expected…In after hours trading AAPL is down 44.46 or 8.08%.
STX also reported earnings after the
close and also disappointed…STX down 3.56 or 6.13% in after hours trading. ZION disappoints on its earnings
report and is down 1.43 or 4.78% in after hours trading.
QIHU had a nice bounce on Monday gaining
5.25 or
6.20%. The volume was 4.4 million shares.
While we have pointed out for weeks
to move stops up and protect profits and that should have led to positions
closing out with profits on Thursday and Friday. Now it’s
time to be defensive. The markets shifted to down in the short-term and
neutral in a six-week time frame this week, while the twelve-week intermediate
term and long-term trends are still up.
Monday kicks off a huge week for
earnings AAPL, CAT, RCL, STX, X, and ZION
just on Monday. On Tuesday CMCSA, DD,
F, ILMN, VMW and YHOO. On Wednesday FB, BA and QCOM report and Thursday releases MMM,
AMZN, CELG, CMG, GOOG
and V. The week wraps with BIDU, CVX and MA on Friday.
Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and move your
protective stops. Continue to follow your rules.
Remember it is big money
that creates and sustains the trend. As Granville wrote,
“technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the
footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.
The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly,
seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
Short-term
up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 181.34, 183.40, 184.69…
QQQ = 88.18, 89.00…
IWM = 114.48, 116.70…
Support Levels
SPY = 179.12, 177.74,
176.36
QQQ = 86.38, 85.67
IWM = 113.26, 112.14,
110.71
Q4 earnings season continues into the third full week…
Monday – AAPL, CAT,
RMBS, RCL, STX, X, ZION
Tuesday – AKS, AAL, AMGN, CHKP, CRUS, CMCSA, GLW, DD, EA, F, ILMN,
LXK, NUE, OI, VMW, YHOO
Wednesday – BIIB, BA,
CTXS, DOW, EMC, FB, LRCX, LVS, PSX, QCOM, TSCO, VLO
Thursday – MMM, ALXN,
AMZN, BZH, BRCM, CELG, CMG, CL, LLY, XOM, GOOG, HOG, JDSU, MTW, OSTK, BTU, POT,
PHM, RVBD, RYL, SHW, BX, TWC, UPS, VIAB, V, WHR,
Friday – BIDU, CVX, CNX,
MA, MAT, NOV, PCAR, SPG, TSN
Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – CAT,
RCL, JNPR, MSFT, KMB, PG, MXIM, SBUX, NFLX, FFIV, URI, UNP, EBAY, MCD, CREE,
TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN,
MON, MU, STZ, APOL
Negative Reactions –
HON, KSU, SWK, STT, ALTR, ISRG, KLAC, KEY, JCI, LMT, WDC, ABT, BAX, ATI, COH,
FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST, AA,
FDO, BBBY, SCHN,
Reversal of Initial
Reaction – FAST, FDO, AA
The Market Forecast Green Line is below 80 and is pointed down.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout:
Diagonal Breakout:
Bull Flag: A, BAC, BBRY, BX, CRM, CSIQ, ESI,
GLW, IWM, LVS, MFRM, P, SCTY, SFUN, SPLK, SPY, STI, SWKS, UAL, V, YELP, ZION, ADSK,
AKAM, AMZN, CTSH, EBAY, ESRX, GILD, GMCR, GOOG, NTAP, PCLN, QCOM, STX, TSLA,
TXN, WDC, WYNN, XLNX,
Potential Bullish
Divergence: GME,
Gap Up:
Gap Down: AAPL, STX, X, ZION
Bear Flag:
At Support: C, FAS,
SPWR, TWTR, YNDX,
C- Pattern:
Moves
New Highs:
Gap Up: CAT,
Gap Down: ADBE,
H Breakout:
Diagonal Breakout:
Breakout Test:
Bounce: TBT, COST, ROST,
MACD Divergence
Bounce:
Bear Flag:
Support Break: CIEN, GOGO, KKD, CELG, TRIP,
______________________
22 out of 100 NDX
stocks closed higher on Monday and
one was unchanged.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: CHTR, FFIV, ILMN,
NXPI
Lagging NDX stocks included: YHOO, GOLD, VOD,
REGN, PCLN, CELG, TRIP, ALXN, TSLA, EBAY
Leading stocks > +2% on Monday
included: QIHU, TSL, GME
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: GOGO, TWTR, XONE, LNKD, UNG, DDD, Z,
YELP, SPLK, KKD, RAX
Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 33
WDC, ILMN,
ADSK, ESRX, MNST, CMCSA, GMCR, DTV, STX, BRCM, AVGO, EQIX, ORLY, AKAM, FFIV, VRTX, XLNX, CTRX, CSCO, SBAC, SIRI, AMGN,
ISRG, MU, MYL, BIIB, GILD, MXIM, TSLA, NXPI, NTAP, GOLD, NFLX
Moving Above 30 DMA =
1
CHTR
Moving Below 30 DMA = 12
ALTR, ALXN, CHKP, EBAY,
GOOG, HSIC, MSFT, PCLN, QCOM, SRCL, SYMC, REGN
Staying Below 30 DMA
AAPL, ADBE, AMAT, AMZN, CA, CELG, CERN, CHRW, CTSH, EXPD, FAST, FISV,
KLAC, LLTC, NVDA, PCAR, SIAL, SNDK, VOD, WYNN, TXN, FB, CIP, ADP, BIDU, CTXS,
GRMN, ADI, KRFT, DISH, EXPE, INTC, INTU, MDLZ, LBTYA, TRIP, YHOO, VIAB, LINTA,
TSCO, ATVI, PAYX, ROST, DLTR, BBBY, SPLS, FOXA, MAT, DISCA, WFM, VRSK, COST,
SBUX, LMCA
Sixteen Week
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Down
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