Six of nine
sectors
moved higher on Thursday and one was
unchanged…XLE, XLI and XLY were the strongest sectors…while XLB was the weakest sector.
Breadth weakened
only slightly as advancers led decliners 1.84 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.38
to 1 on the NASDAQ.
Wednesday – weakened slightly, advancers led
Tuesday – strengthened,
advancers led
Monday – holiday
Friday – weakened,
decliners led
Thursday – weakened,
mixed
SPY up .12 at 184.30 volume 60.9 million shares, below average volume
VIX down .03 at 12.84…
TNX up .35 at 28.60…
TLT down .26 at 105.30...
XLF up .01 at 21.96 volume 18.1
million shares
AAPL up 2.44 at 551.51 volume 13.5 million shares
FB down 1.00 at 57.51…volume 61.4 million shares
Technical
Commentary:
DIA – 0.16%,
SPY + 0.07%, QQQ + 0.26%, IWM +0.51%.
IWM makes another all-time high, QQQ
a new-high
close as SPY and DIA trade below horizontal resistance. QQQ moved higher on the strength of
AMGN, AAPL, CMCSA, GILD and TXN.
NFLX +59.94,
+17.96% gaps up to 393.67 a new
all-time high in after-hours in another positive earnings reaction late
Thursday.
FFIV +11.22,
+11.51% and EBAY +3.10%, +5.70% gained in after-hours trading on
positive earnings reactions after the close.
Earnings releases continue to produce both positive
CREE, NUAN, TXN, UTX and negative reactions ATI, ABT and COH.
The weight of the technical evidence
still favors the uptrend. Trade the trend in this week’s holiday shortened trading week and
be mindful of when individual stocks are reporting earnings. Earning releases increase over the next two
weeks.
The intermediate-term trend is still
up, while the short-term trend is neutral.
Trade with the trend, move your protective stops. Continue to follow your rules.
Remember it is big money
that creates and sustains the trend. As Granville wrote,
“technical analysis is the art of tracking the market, following the
footsteps of the ‘smart money’ crowd.
The ‘smart money crowd’ is no mysterious ‘THEY.’ It is simply a collection of people who are reading the market correctly,
seeing through the maze, unconfused by this hall of mirrors.”
Short-term
up trend Chart Targets:
SPY = 184.69, 186.76, 188.04…
QQQ = 88.74, 89.38, 90.25…
IWM = 116.70, 118.54…
Q4 earnings season is underway.
Monday – holiday
Tuesday – AMD, BHI, CA,
CREE, DAL, HAL, IBM, JNJ, NUAN, RF, TXN, TRV, VZ, XLNX
Wednesday – ABT, ATI,
COH, EBAY, FFIV, FCX, NFLX, SNDK, USB, URI, UTX, WDC
Thursday – ALK, ALTR,
BAX, ETFC, ISRG, JCI, JNPR, KEY, KLAC, LMT, MXIM, MCD, MSFT, LUV, SBUX, UAL, UNP,
Friday – HON, KSU, KMB,
PG, SWK, STT
Q4 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – CREE,
TXN, UTX, NUAN, XLNX, BHI, DAL, RF, MS, SLB, STI, AXP, SWKS, BAC, LLTC, WEN,
MON, MU, STZ, APOL
Negative Reactions – ABT,
ATI, COH, FCX, AMD, IBM, HAL, JNJ, TRV, VZ, GE, COF, INTC, UNH, C, GS, CSX, FAST,
AA, FDO, BBBY, SCHN,
Reversal of Initial
Reaction – FAST, FDO, AA
The Market Forecast Green Line is above 80.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout: SPY,
CREE, CSIQ, RAX, SSYS, SWKS, ADBE, GMCR, MNST, TSLA,
Diagonal Breakout: DRYS, FAS, FSLR, GOGO, TPX, TWTR, AAPL,
Bull Flag: BAC, DDD, ESI, LNKD, MFRM, MS, P, RCL, SCTY,
SPWR, SWI, YELP, YOKU, Z, AKAM,
Potential Bullish
Divergence: ANR, MCP, TBT,
Gap Up: NFLX, EBAY, FFIV,
Gap Down: WDC
Bear Flag: GME,
SCSS,
At Support: ATI, C, GLD,
GRPN, KKD, X,
C- Pattern:
Moves
New Highs: IWM, A, BBRY, BX, CRM, GLW, JNPR, QIHU,
SFUN, SPLK, STI, SWKS, UAL, DAL, AAL, ZION,
Gap Up: UNG, NUAN
Gap Down: IBM, LVS, AMD, COH,
H Breakout: PCLN, TXN, ANGI, CIEN, SFUN, UNG,
Diagonal Breakout:
Breakout Test:
Bounce: BIDU, MU, CIEN, CREE, NTES, SOHU, TSL, VRSN,
MACD Divergence
Bounce:
Bear Flag:
Support Break: ROST,
______________________
65 out of 100 NDX
stocks closed higher on Wednesday
and one was unchanged.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: DISH, AMGN, NXPI,
ILMN, MU, XLNX, FISV, VIAB, CERN, BRCM, KLAC
Lagging NDX stocks included: ADSK, FB, ROST,
WYNN, VRTX, BBBY, ALXN, MYL
Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday
included: BBRY, SFUN, CREE, TSL, UNG, ANGI, DDD, GME, UAL, CIEN
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: ATI, YOKU, IBM, YNDX
Stocks to Watch on
Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 68
CTSH, WDC,
GOOG, ILMN, LLTC, ADSK, ESRX, ALXN, MNST, SIAL, CMCSA, GMCR, STX, DTV, BRCM,
WYNN, FB, AVGO, EQIX, ORLY, ADBE, AKAM, CA, CHKP, FFIV, PCAR, SNDK, VRTX, XLNX,
CTRX, KRFT, AMAT, CSCO, SBAC, CHTR, HSIC, SIRI, AMGN, ISRG, MU, MYL, BIIB,
CHRW, EXPD, ADP, ALTR, AMZN, CTXS, EBAY, GILD, MXIM, NVDA, QCOM, SRCL, VOD,
TXN, REGN, TSLA, NXPI, CERN, GRMN, NTAP, PCLN, SYMC, CELG, GOLD, FAST, ADI
Moving Above 30 DMA = 4
BIDU, FISV, KLAC, DISH
Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
EXPE, INTC, INTU
Staying Below 30 DMA
MDLZ, LBTYA, VIP, TRIP, AAPL, YHOO, VIAB, LINTA, TSCO, ATVI, PAYX, ROST,
DLTR, BBBY, SPLS, FOXA, MAT, DISCA, WFM, VRSK, NFLX, MSFT, COST, SBUX, LMCA
Sixteen Week
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Up – IWM, QQQ, Neutral -
SPY
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